Organizing for America | Thad Williamson's Blog: No Need to Panic: Why Obama's Still in Good Shape

No Need to Panic: Why Obama's Still in Good Shape

By Thad Williamson - Aug 28th, 2008 at 1:14 am EDT

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My article today published by Richmond.com:

http://www.richmond.com/news-features/25262

The saying used to go that every man knows how to grill a streak and coach a football team. Perhaps that saying needs to be updated: every liberal, in addition, knows how to run a presidential campaign.

That’s the impression one gets from many recent commentaries about Barack Obama’s campaign from quarters that are desperate for the Illinois senator to win. Those critics are worried that Obama isn’t ahead by more, and fret that the Democrats will once-again let themselves get Swift-boated on the way to yet another narrow electoral defeat.

The anxiety is understandable, given what’s at stake in the election. Moreover, the critics who say that Obama needs to be willing to hit harder at McCain and sharpen his economic message are exactly right.

That said, it would be very wrong for Democrats to hit the panic button.

First, if the election were held today, polls indicate he would almost certainly win an Electoral College majority, even if the popular vote were deadlocked. Over the past month Pollster.com has consistently shown Obama with at least 260 electoral votes in his corner compared to 176 for McCain, meaning he would need to pick up just one mid-sized toss-up state (such as Virginia) to put him over the top. Obama is still ahead and is still the frontrunner, albeit barely so.

Second, Obama chose wisely in picking Joe Biden as his running mate. Earlier in this space I endorsed Jim Webb as a good choice. Webb removed his name from consideration, but Biden has the same major plus Webb did: credibility and experience on foreign policy. Beyond this, Biden’s famous sharp tongue and ample sense of self means he won’t be cowed by Republican attacks and worry about trying to be Mr. Nice Guy.

Unlike John Edwards four years ago, Biden has no future presidential ambitions to protect either -- this is it for him, and it would be a major surprise and disappointment if he doesn’t come on to the ticket swinging.

Third, Obama has shown signs last week of moving towards a more direct, populist appeal in his stops in Virginia. I attended the “town hall” at John Tyler Community College in Chester, where Obama and Tim Kaine stressed the issue of economic security and went after McCain hard for being out of touch after the wealthy Arizona senator acknowledged he doesn’t know how many homes he owns. Obama also talked in a very practical way about health care, tax credits for the working poor, investments in green energy and mass transit and shifting resources from Iraq to domestic priorities. Obama needs to keep hammering away at those specifics, and keep raising the issue of whether Americans are better off than they were eight years ago.

Fourth, there is every reason to think that Obama will be both a more energetic campaigner and a better debater than McCain in the final two months of the campaign. While better command of issues does not guarantee making the most favorable impression during a debate (see Gore, Al, 2000), the debates will provide a clear-cut opportunity for Obama to present his differences with McCain in a compelling way.

Fifth, not to be underestimated is the bounce Obama may get from his Thursday night nomination speech. The sight of an African-American accepting the presidential nomination of a major party will be a hugely emotional, even cathartic experience for many Americans. So far in this campaign, Obama’s speechmaking has been at its best when emotions have been at their peak -- after his victory in the Iowa Caucus, addressing the question of race and Rev. Wright in March, after clinching the nomination in June. Obama has the chance to both define his candidacy and define this race for a truly national audience, and it would be disappointing and surprising if he falls anything short of his compelling best.

This is a chance to seize the initiative, and Barack Obama had better take it and not let go. He needs to clearly spell out the sad shape America is in, explain they ways in which George Bush is responsible, explain how closely tied McCain and Bush are both politically and philosophically, and explain why he represents a crystal clear difference on every key area of policy.

Once he’s done all that, he needs to use a firm hand in shaping the day-to-day and hour-to-hour agenda, and not let McCain or the media define the key storylines. Staying on target with the key campaign themes -- the economy, health care, energy, and Iraq -- while simultaneously beating down and beating back attacks from McCain and others on the right will not be easy, and it will be impossible if Obama lets himself (a la John Kerry) get put in the position of playing defense the next two months. Instead, Obama needs to force McCain to try to defend the indefensible, namely the record of George W. Bush and 8 years of Republican leadership in Washington.

Obama’s selection of Joe Biden suggests he understands the nature of the fight ahead. That thought should relax worried liberals, at least a little.

Yet even when Obama and Biden slip up this fall, those worried liberals’ best response should not be to whine about their candidates. It should be to get out there and do something to help the ticket win. That’s especially true in a state like Virginia, a state which could plausibly tilt the entire election and where all signs point towards an exceedingly close race, in the manner of Jim Webb’s razor-thin victory over George Allen in 2006.

Obama has poured very substantial resources into Virginia, including Richmond, creating an ample infrastructure to support grassroots volunteer efforts. Democrats who are serious about winning this time should be thinking not just about what the candidate should be doing to win the daily media wars, but what they can do to help the candidate.

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